SJST Season Preview

Irbe's Pads   3 October 2017

Hello Sharks fans, Botswana lovers, and severe masochists! First off, on behalf of site dictator SJSDFan, our "writer" staff, and Dmitriy, who's just sorta there, we'd like to welcome you all to SJ Shark Tank! Here, you'll find various articles to satisfy all your Sharks' needs. Whether it be a humorous article about jersey rankings or game previews, threads, and recaps, SJST has you covered. If confused on how our little circle of hell works, please read this introduction. As we on SJST embark on a new course for the website, the playoff challenged team we cover is also charting unknown waters. For the first time since 1998, San Jose will be without the services of Patrick Marleau because I don't know he probably retired or something. This leaves the Sharks with a large hole in the wing position and a large hole in my soul. Instead of looking for quick fixes via free agency, the Sharks have tapped into their young internal depth, relying on a new crop of young Sharks, headed by speedster Marcus Sorenson and 2015 first round draft choice Timo "Marleau we always wanted" Meier. How will this new look team fare? Will they be able to hold up against new powerhouses like the Oilers? Can the injection of these youngsters inject life into a limp powerplay? And maybe, can San Jose finally reach the holy grail and raise Lord Stanley's cup for the first time in their history? Let's find out, in SJST's season preview extravaganza!

2016-2017 Recap:

After the amazing heights reached in San Jose’s 2016 campaign, 2017 seemed like it was going to shape up even better. These good feelings were augmented when San Jose poached speedster Mikkel Boedker to a 4yr/16 million dollar package and sturdy defenceman David Schlemko to a 4yr/2.1 million dollar deal. Despite these good feelings, the Sharks got off to a rather sluggish start, capped off by a 3-2 loss to the lowly Arizona Coyotes on November 19th, bringing their record to a rather anemic 9-8-1.  A notable takeaway from this stretch was the struggles of Boedker and the powerplay, a theme that would become all too prevalent as the season wore on. However, those problems seemed not to bear spoiled fruits for the moment, as San Jose went on a tear. After that November loss to the Coyotes, the Sharks proceeded to only lose 11 times in regulation up to March 9th, 2017, a 4-2 win over the Washington Capitals. This rocketed the Sharks up the Pacific Division standings, awarding them with a 40-19-7 record and 87 points, 7 points better than their next nearest division competitor, the Anaheim Ducks. Several attributes can be chalked up for this torrid stretch. Arguably the largest contributor was the astounding play of eventual Norris Trophy recipient Brent Burns. Burns quickly emerged as a powerplay ace, often relying on rifling his ridiculously accurate shot past whatever hapless screened netminder he happened to face. Coupled with his slick skating, Burns became a deadly asset whenever he was on the ice. Another emergence was the resurgence of Patrick Marleau. Using his blazing speed and great offensive capabilities, Marleau enjoyed a revival, finishing the season with 27 goals. Marleau’s signature game came in Colorado on January 23rd, where he potted a natural hat trick and finished the contest with a spectacular 4 goals.  And let us not leave out the steady play of our lord and saviour Martin Jones, who once again showed his steadiness in net and occasional ability to steal games. The Sharks defensive depth, too often a weakness in the past, was a strength for San Jose, with Schlemko proving he was worth every penny and a rebound season from much mangled Brendan Dillon.  Despite these positives, not all was rosy in Shark waters. Joe Thornton, who had a comeback year for the ages in 2016 (82 points), experienced major regression in 2017, struggling to score and not displaying the pure on ice strength and dominance we’ve come to expect over the years. And although the Sharks stars like Burns and Marleau improved, the supporting cast, touted as one of the deeper groups in the league, faced regression. Joel Ward, Joonas Donskoi, Chris Tierney, Mikkel Boedker, and some random enforcer named Haley that certain blogs really didn’t like, all faced regression, stagnation, or just being plain awful. Although players like Melker improved, and the emergence of Kevin LaBanc helped in the short run, the general mediocrity of the depth was an issue. Doug Wilson attempted to patch this deficiency in the short term, by trading former prized prospect Nikolai Goldobin for skilled winger Jannik Hansen, but it couldn’t elevate the depth to heights needed to compete with the big dogs in the west. And henceforth, the Sharks slid. Generated by struggling depth, an anemic powerplay we’ll discuss more in depth later on, a stubborn coaching staff, regression of Brent Burns and Martin Jones back to human like form, the Sharks only won 6 of their last 16 games and crumpled down the Pacific division. The Sharks entered a particularly nasty skid in mid to late March, as they lost 6 straight and coughed up the division crown to the Ducks. The Sharks eventually limped to 3rd in the Pacific division with a 46-29-7 record, good for 99 points. This guaranteed them a matchup with the high flying Edmonton Oilers, pretty much the last team San Jose would want to face. By the time the playoffs had started, the Sharks were out of gas. Although spurts of brilliance would emerge like Melker Karlsson’s game 1 OT winner, the damage was done. The Sharks were bounced in 6 games. Even worse news emerged prior to the free agency period, as David Schlemko, a bright spot for the team, was picked up in the expansion draft by the newly founded Vegas Golden Knights. In free agency, disaster struck. After failing to come to a deal, Patrick Marleau did a thing I don’t really feel like repeating here. And now, on the eve of the 2017-2018 season, the San Jose Sharks hockey club stands at a precarious crossroad.

 Breaking down the Sharks

Offense:

What should be one of the better offences in the NHL was surprisingly anemic last year. In team GPG (goals per game), San Jose ranked a disappointing 19th (2.67). That’s unacceptable for a team boasting such talent. A part of that low number has to do with the Sharks’ horrid PP% (16.7%, 25th in league). Like I said, an offense of that caliber shouldn't be hanging out with the likes of Detroit in the basement. If San Jose’s offence steps up, they need to fulfill two key goals. More scoring depth, and a better powerplay. For the next section, I’ll highlight 4 players I find integral to achieving a top 10 offense.

 (Offense) Player Preview:

Joe Pavelski:

Joe Pavelski is an odd player. Easily the worst skater on the team, but a 4 time 30 goal scorer. A player who got his lion’s share of goals from deflections zipping from the blueline, but a player no netminder wants to see manning the slot open. Joe Pavelski is an amazing hockey player, oozing with god-like hand eye coordination and hockey sense. His versatility allows him to play any position, and his shot is unmatched. He wins above 52% of his faceoffs, and his Fenwick For (FF%) percentage (58.9%) shows that he’s a skilled possession player, and his team controls the puck more when he’s on the ice.  Despite this, in a league moving towards speed, Joe Pavelski could be left in the dust thanks in part to his skating ability. This season will be absolutely critical for Little Joe. Will he continue to knock down 30 goal seasons with ease? Or will his skating ability finally catch up with him?

Joonas Donskoi:

Behold the enigma that is Joonas Donskoi! One of the great surprises of the 2016 season (11 goals, 36 points), Joonas was a part of the great depth decline that plagued the Sharks last year. Blessed with great skating, good work ethic, and a pretty good Fenwick For (54.8%), He still only tallied a mere 6 goals and 17 points last year, as he was struck by the injury bug and plain old bad luck. No one is denying Donskoi’s talents, one can easily remember his snipe on Murray in the finals , but he needs to steer clear of the E.R this year if he’s to lead a resurgence for the Sharks’ bottom six.

Timo Meier:

A common theme in this Sharks season is a move to youth. With the departure of Patrick Marleau to places unknown, the onus is now on the youngsters to step up and replace the scoring that Marleau brought. No youngster has more pressure on this team than Timo Meier. With nifty mittens and a need for speed (hehe), the winger has all the tools to be 20 goal scorer in the NHL, and the Sharks very well expect him to be. But can he? I believe so. His FF% was very high for a rookie (55.8%) and his aforementioned skills can accelerate him to the top. What does he need to work on? Smarter shots. His shot percentage was a puny 3.5% last year.

Brent Burns:

What’s to say that hasn’t been said about the beard? Although his defence can be…. Sketchy at best, he’s the most important cog in a Sharks’ offense, and more importantly, powerplay. Nearly all plays and shots in the powerplay run through him. Take Burns out the picture, and you have a powerplay even more mediocre than it already is. The question for Burns is, can he keep it up? He was neck and neck with Crosby and McDavid for the Art Ross trophy midseason, before he dropped off his torrid pace. Can he keep the same level of play throughout the year? The most important piece in the Sharks machine must keep chugging. If he goes down, the possibility for playoffs becomes a lot more slim.

Defence and Goaltending:

As opposed to the offence, the defence side of the game was a pleasant surprise for the Sharks last year. Pushed by the steady goaltending of Martin Jones and solid defensive depth, the Sharks were 5th in fewest goals allowed per game, with 2.44. What can the Sharks do to maintain that number this year? Here are 3 essential players to ensure that the puck stay out of the back netting.

(Defence) Player Preview:

Marc-Edouard Vlasic:

Despite it being a bit of an off year for Vlasic (His Corsi For percentage dropped from 52.2% in 2016 to 47.8% in 2017), the man still got PAID in the offseason (8yr/7 million). Good. Despite the dip in 2017, Vlasic is still one of the premier defenders of the league and worth the contract. He rarely makes back breaking mistakes in the defensive zone, is very moblie, and displays a calm, collected game. The ability of this defensive core to keep the puck out of the net lies to Vlasic. Despite Vlasic, y’know, being Vlasic, he’s still getting up there in age. Regression to San Jose’s top defensive blueliner spells woes for the rest of the group.

Brendan Dillon:

Oh Brendan Dillon, what would we do without you? Your costly turnovers, your occasionally questionable defence acumen, your appearances in holiday videos? Brendan Dillon has long been a scapegoat, often representing the woes of San Jose defensive depth. However, this year, Brendan Dillon and the bottom 2 pairing experienced a renaissance. Dillon’s CF% (Corsi for) percentage rose above 50 for the first time in his career (51.1%), same with his FF% (51.8%). But the eye test also justified him. He seemed to become less panicky in his own zone, and made smarter plays on and off the puck. However, not all this praise is directed towards Dillon. David Schlemko, his defensive partner, had a wonderful year (5v5 CF%: 53.8%, 5v5 FF%: 54.6%), and some argued that Schlemko picked up Dillon’s slack on the third pairing. Now, with Schlemko gone, that theory is going to be put to the test. Will the Dillon of last year emerge triumphant? Or will the old Dillon we know and love re-enter the fray?

Martin Jones:

What’s more to be said? Martin Jones is a good hockey goaltender. His large 6-4 frame allows him to cover the net very naturally, coupled with wonderful athleticism and a collected presence in the net. He’s a clutch netminder who also happens to be a deity. Despite this, there are some things Jones has to improve this year, starting with a wonky glove hand. Too many shots last year zoomed past or above his glove, which is a problem that must be remedied. His SV% (.912%) doesn’t look that great, it’s important to note that number is deflated thanks to the March skid, and his SV% was hovering around the .920% mark for most of the year. Still, can Jones take that next step this year and become a truly elite netminder? Only time will tell.

Special Teams:

Special teams was a definite weakness last year. The PK% and PP% finished 18th and 25th in team stats respectively. Let’s take a look at the special teams and try to diagnose the problem.

Powerplay:

Where do we possibly start with this? The Sharks’ powerplay woes have been well documented, and their 25th overall placement in team PP% is pathetic and unacceptable. So, what gives? One of the largest problems facing the powerplay is a lack of differing shot creation. PP coach Steve Spott put a very rigid, immobile, predictable system in place. Send a man out to the screen, pass to Burns, let him shoot to the net and hope that either the opposing team’s goalie doesn’t see the puck, or the man placed out front of the net deflects the shot. This series of plays became very predictable as the season went on, and no matter the skill of the players on the powerplay, the opposing team will adjust and clamp you down if they know what you’re going to do every single time. I put blame on the coaching staff. Even when it was clear that teams had figured the Sharks on the man advantage, Spott refused to tinker with his powerplay, letting it wither as the season goes on? How do we improve the powerplay? Simple. Let players skate. Create a mobile powerplay where everyone is skating, unlike the stationary style of the “let er rip Burns” strategy. This will cause the opposing PK to chase after the puck, and this will allow the pure skill of Sharks like Jumbo on the powerplay to shine, setting up cross ice passes and the like. Hopefully the coaching staff figures something out this year, because a 16% PP is not playoff caliber.

Penalty Kill:

An admittedly very meh unit. Ranked 18th in the NHL with a pedestrian 80.7%, the PK nether stunk it up or impressed. A part of the meh PK was a pedestrian year from usually PK specialist MEV. If he can rebound, I predict a much better PK% this year. Another shaky component to the kill is Martin Jones. Martin Jones posted an iffy PKSV% of .885%. If the PK is going to improve, Jones must step it up.

Three Key Questions:

  1. Can the young guys step up?

With the departure of Patrick Marleau, youth is the new movement for San Jose. Young players like Sorensen, Meier, LaBanc and Carpenter will be asked to fill the gap. The Sharks need at least one of them to break out this year.

 2. Can the powerplay bounce back?

Last year’s powerplay was nothing short of a disaster. The onus will be on the young guys to emerge and help the powerplay. Burns must continue his god-like form, and the coaching staff must make the necessary adjustments to ensure the powerplay excels this year.

 3. Can the Sharks sustain high levels of play?

The Sharks were crushing it before running out of gas last year. Can the team keep up with the other Pacific powerhouses?

Conclusion/Prediction: 2nd in Pacific

The Sharks ain’t dead yet. No matter the multitudes of hockey magazines writing them out of the playoffs, this is still a very good team. Jones will improve, Vlasic will return to the great heights he’s displayed in the past, and the depth won’t be as terrible as it was last year, because, well, that’d be pretty hard to do. It’s amazing to see hockey “experts” write off the Sharks even when the Sharks led the Pacific for the better part of the season. The only thing that holds this team back? The powerplay. If the powerplay can rebound, this team can reach great heights. And with the addition of speedy youngsters to the lineup, this a still a team to watch. The Sharks ain’t dead yet baby.

GO SHARKS!